NEXTNasdaqNatural Gas Transmisison & DistributionUS GAAP · USD

NextDecade Corp

NextDecade Corp is a Houston-based energy company focused on developing and constructing LNG export infrastructure in the Rio Grande Valley near Brownsville, Texas. Its core business centers on the Rio Grande LNG Facility, including liquefaction trains, related infrastructure, and potential carbon capture and storage projects, with common stock listed on Nasdaq under the symbol NEXT.

Revenue0.0m USD
Operating profit (EBIT)-226m USD
−32.1 %y/y
Net income-430m USD
−254.9 %y/y
Free cash flow-5,016m USD
−88.3 %y/y

Fiscal year 2025 · change from previous year

Development 2020–2025

-250-200-150-100-500m USD2020: 0.00 m USD2020: EBIT -22 m USD20202021: 0.00 m USD2021: EBIT -20 m USD20212022: 0.00 m USD2022: EBIT -54 m USD20222023: 0.00 m USD2023: EBIT -123 m USD20232024: 0.00 m USD2024: EBIT -171 m USD20242025: 0.00 m USD2025: EBIT -226 m USD20250.00-226
RevenueOperating profit (EBIT)

Business

Share of revenue
LNG liquefaction and export development70 %

Construction and development of the Rio Grande LNG Facility and its liquefaction trains.

LNG sales under SPAs20 %

Contracted LNG volumes sold under long-term sale and purchase agreements.

Portfolio and commissioning LNG sales5 %

Uncontracted LNG volumes sold into spot, short-term, and medium-term markets.

Shipping and charter coordination3 %

Time charter and subcharter arrangements supporting LNG delivery obligations.

Carbon capture and storage development2 %

Early-stage CCS project development tied to the Rio Grande LNG site.

Customers

NextDecade sells LNG to a limited set of commercial counterparties, primarily under long-term sale and purchase agreements tied to specific liquefaction trains. It also expects to place commissioning volumes and any excess operational volumes into spot, short-term, and medium-term LNG markets. The customer base includes buyers that need reliable LNG supply and, in some cases, credit support to satisfy project-financing requirements.

Long-term SPA customers

Buy LNG volumes under multi-year contracts linked to specific trains and delivery milestones.

Spot and short-term LNG buyers

Purchase commissioning LNG and excess portfolio volumes when available.

Utilities and energy market participants

Buy LNG for import, regasification, and downstream gas supply needs.

State-linked or regulated import entities

Buy LNG in jurisdictions where import and resale are heavily regulated.

Strategy

NextDecade’s strategy is to complete and operate the Rio Grande LNG Facility, starting with the first liquefaction trains and then expanding through additional trains at the same site. The company is also advancing permitting for Trains 6 through 8 and evaluating CCS as a complementary project. Commercially, it seeks to secure long-term LNG offtake, arrange shipping capacity, and maintain financing access for each project phase.

Bring liquefaction trains into operationShort term

Operating trains are needed to convert the project from development into cash-generating LNG sales.

Secure commercial support for future capacityMedium term

Long-term contracts and financing are needed before new trains can proceed.

Develop CCS optionalityLong term

CCS could broaden the project’s environmental positioning and future market relevance.

Geography

The company is headquartered in Houston, Texas, and its main asset is the Rio Grande LNG Facility in the Rio Grande Valley near Brownsville, Texas. Its commercial exposure is global because LNG is sold into international markets, while feedgas access is tied to U.S. supply basins such as the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale. Geography matters because the project depends on Gulf Coast infrastructure, U.S. permitting, and overseas LNG demand and shipping routes.

Risks

The business is exposed to construction, financing, and counterparty risk because the core asset is still being built and depends on third-party contractors, lenders, and customers. LNG projects also face operational hazards, severe weather, permitting delays, shipping constraints, and intense global competition from better-capitalized peers. Because the company is not yet a mature operating exporter, delays or cost overruns can have an outsized effect on execution and funding needs.

Sorted by severity
LowMediumHighLowMediumHighImpact →Likelihood →Construction delay or cost overrun at Rio Grande LNG1Financing and leverage risk2Counterparty credit and performance risk3Weather and operational hazard risk4Permitting and regulatory risk5
Impact is the risk’s severity and likelihood how probable it is over the next few years, both assessed from the company’s reports. Numbers match the list.
  1. Construction delay or cost overrun at Rio Grande LNGImpact: HighLikelihood: Medium

    The company depends on large-scale EPC execution and startup timing for future operations.

    ExposurePhase 1Train 4Train 5Future expansion trains
  2. Financing and leverage riskImpact: HighLikelihood: Medium

    Project-level debt and funding needs can restrict flexibility and increase refinancing pressure.

    Exposure: Subsidiary project credit facilities and future phases

  3. Counterparty credit and performance riskImpact: HighLikelihood: Medium

    The business relies on contractors, LNG buyers, suppliers, and financiers to perform.

    ExposureSPAsEPC contractsShipping arrangementsSupply agreements
  4. Weather and operational hazard riskImpact: HighLikelihood: Medium

    LNG facilities face hurricanes, explosions, fires, pollution events, and other hazards.

    Exposure: Rio Grande LNG Facility and related infrastructure

  5. Permitting and regulatory riskImpact: HighLikelihood: Low

    LNG export projects require extensive approvals and can face legal or community opposition.

    ExposureFERC approvalsEnvironmental reviewLocal opposition

Accounting

Judgemental items
Derivative instruments

Interest rate swaps are marked to fair value and can create large non-cash volatility.

Impact: Reported earnings and comprehensive income

Construction cost capitalization

Project costs and interest during construction affect asset values and future depreciation.

Impact: Balance sheet and future expense recognition

Project financing and debt accounting

Large non-recourse facilities and notes affect interest expense and financing costs.

Impact: Net income, leverage presentation, and cash flow classification

Non-controlling interests

Project entities are consolidated but allocate earnings to outside investors.

Impact: Net income attributable to common stockholders

Publicly listed companies with a comparable business focus.

Last updated: 24/09/2026

NextDecade Corp (Nasdaq) – Natural Gas Transmisison & Distribution | Financial Analysis – Clarifo